The sequential trauma score - a new instrument for the sequential mortality prediction in major trauma*

Table 3 Quality parameter of the different models (n = 1,760, development data set)

Model	P	A	P+A	B1	P+A+B1	B2	P+A+B1+B2	TRISS	RISC
Quality criteria
Discrimination
Prognosis survivors (S)	12.5	11.1	10.3	10.3	9.2	9.6	8	13.4	10
Prognosis non-survivors	16.8	25.9	31.2	31.2	38.7	33.8	46.9	49	48.8
(N-S)
Difference between S	4.3	14.8	20.9	20.9	29.5	24.2	38.9	35.6	38.8
and n-S
Sensitivity	0	13.0	23.5	25.2	34.3	18.3	40.9	47.4	43.5
Specificity	100	98.4	97.8	98.9	98.1	98.3	98.2	91.6	96.2
Overall accuracy	86.9	90.0	88.1	89.3	89.8	87.8	90.7	86.0	89.3
Nagelkerkes R² [24]	0.07	0.21	0.29	0.27	0.38	0.34	0.49	n.a.	n.a.
AUC of ROC	0.63	0.76	0.82	0.78	0.85	0.84	0.90	0.85	0.90
95% CI	0.59-0.67	0.72-0.79	0.79-0.85	0.75-0.82	0.82-0.88	0.81-0.87	0.88-0.92	0.82-0.88	0.89-0.92
Precision
Observed mortality (%)	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1
Score prognosis (%)	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1	18.0	15.1
Calibration
H-l [25]	n.a.	1.34	5.29	2.36	4.19	4.66	11.48	136.10	17.30
p-value	n.a.	0.511	0.259	0.500	0.522	0.701	0.120	< 0.001	0.027

P Patients basic data; A Prehospital phase; B1 early trauma room phase; B2 late trauma room phase; TRISS trauma and injury severity score, RISC revised injury severity classification score; S survivors; N-S non-survivors; AUC area under the curve. Roc receiver operating characteristic; CI confidence interval; H-L Goodness of fit statistics according to Hosmer and Lemeshow [25]; n.a. not applicable

ISSN: 2047-783X