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Fig. 2 | European Journal of Medical Research

Fig. 2

From: Successive waves of COVID 19: confinement effects on virus-prevalence with a mathematical model

Fig. 2

COVID 19 daily transmission in China, India, The USA and Iran fitted during the period from Nov. 17, 2019 up to June 1st, 2021. A cornerstone of the present model is its scientific answer to the question of why does the virus attacks a country more (or less) vigorous with respect to another. For example, the virus has attacked both China (A) and India (B) in only one wave. Although the enormous population of these countries, one believes that the swift response of the individuals in both countries, in addition to the scientific decision-system of the decision-maker(s) are the reasons that the virus hit by only one wave. While in C and D, twice-viral attacks have hit the USA and Iran. This is essentially due to (i) the general behaviour of individuals and (ii) the governmental decision-system against virus-prevalence. On June 2020, the USA has some great protestations with 15 million to 26 million people participated in Black Lives Matter. This huge assemblage triggered a second epidemic attack. The same has happened in Iran, on March 21, the Iranians have assembled for the Iranian New Year. The population close contacts were sufficiently high to trigger the second viral attack. In the four figures, the red lines represent the calculated values after Eq. (4) and the blue circles stand for published data. A good fit between the red lines and the blues circle supports the validity of the present model

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