Fig. 5

Construction and evaluation of the optimal multivariate Cox regression model for lupus nephritis. A Forest plot of composite endpoint. B Prediction performance of the optimal multivariate Cox regression model. A ROC plot by estimated 10-year survival probability of free from the composite endpoint. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.81 (95% CI 0.69–0.92). C A nomogram for the prediction of composite endpoint based on the optimal multivariate Cox regression model. The sum of these points, plotted on the “Total points” line, corresponds to the estimated probability of 5 years and 10 years free from the composite endpoint. Rows of proteinuria (non-crescent) and proteinuria (crescent) were the interaction items between proteinuria and crescents, and the numbers on the axis indicate the proteinuria level. MBP mean blood pressure, dsDNA double-stranded DNA, SLEDAI, systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity index, CI chronicity NIH index