Table 4 Predictive models of poor evolution at 6 months
Variables | Model 1 OR [CI 95%] | Model 1 p value | Model 2 OR [CI 95%] | Model 2 p value | Model 3 OR [CI 95%] | Model 3 p value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age (years) | 1.04 [0.98–1.11] | 0.180 | 1.04 [0.98–1.11] | 0.180 | 1.04 [0.98–1.11] | 0.178 |
SLEDAI | 0.99 [0.85–1.15] | 0.922 | ||||
SCr (mg/dl) | 0.91 [0.13–6.10] | 0.921 | 0.91 [0.13–6.09] | 0.922 | ||
Proteinuria (g/24 h) | 0.83 [0.49–1.38] | 0.467 | 0.82 [0.51–1.31] | 0.405 | 0.81 [0.51–1.28] | 0.377 |
Chronicity index | 0.76 [0.26–2.23] | 0.614 | 0.75 [0.26–2.17] | 0.595 | 0.72 [0.31–1.67] | 0.453 |
Thrombocytopenia* | 22.0 [1.07–452.5] | 0.045 | 21.7 [1.1–428.1] | 0.043 | 20.3 [1.43–287.4] | 0.026 ** |
Fibrosis | 33.6 [1.31–861.4] | 0.034 | 34.8 [1.45–833.1] | 0.028 | 35.9 [1.57–820.8] | 0.025 ** |
Glucocorticoids | 0.32 [0.05–2.01] | 0.233 | 0.32 [0.05–2.07] | 0.232 | 0.32 [0.05–2.06] | 0.230 |
Low C3 | 0.48 [0.04–5.14] | 0.543 | 0.45 [0.05–3.98] | 0.477 | 0.45 [0.05–3.94] | 0.473 |
Constant | 0.038 [0–3.83] | 0.165 | 0.036 [0–3.25] | 0.148 | 0.03 [0–3.17] | 0.145 |
HL | 0.156 | 0.218 | 0.306 | |||
AUC | 0.897 (0.780–1.000) | 0.899 (0.785–1.000) | 0.899 (0.785–1.000) | |||
Best cut point | Pr predicted ≥ 0.243 S = 90.9% E = 88.7% %CC = 89.1 | Pr predicted ≥ 0.235 S = 90.9% E = 88.7% %CC = 89,1 | Pr predicted ≥ 0.225 S = 90.9% E = 88.7% %CC = 89.1 |