Interpretable machine learning model for early prediction of 28-day mortality in ICU patients with sepsis-induced coagulopathy: development and validation

Table 2 The prediction performance of each model in internal validation and external validation sets

Model	AUROC	AUPRC	ACC	SE	SP	PPV	NPV	F1 score	DeLong test for AUC
Internal validation set
XGBoost	0.828	0.807	0.785	0.646	0.904	0.739	0.2	0.63	Reference
LR	0.809	0.605	0.770	0.546	0.886	0.712	0.209	0.62	P < 0.001^*
NB	0.768	0.499	0.733	0.481	0.862	0.643	0.236	0.55	P < 0.001^*
SVM	0.808	0.610	0.774	0.504	0.914	0.751	0.219	0.60	P < 0.001^*
SOFA	0.715	0.507	0.713	0.310	0.921	0.671	0.279	0.42	P < 0.001^*
SAPS II	0.746	0.517	0.722	0.397	0.889	0.649	0.259	0.49	P < 0.001^*
SIC score	0.602	0.443	0.664	0.212	0.964	0.431	0.336	0.35	P < 0.001^*
External validation set (MIMIC-IV)
XGBoost	0.913	0.796	0.885	0.523	0.974	0.828	0.107	0.69	Reference
LR	0.841	0.589	0.847	0.403	0.956	0.692	0.133	0.58	P < 0.001^*
NB	0.814	0.479	0.807	0.511	0.879	0.510	0.200	0.51	P < 0.001^*
SVM	0.839	0.591	0.842	0.347	0.964	0.700	0.142	0.54	P < 0.001^*
SOFA	0.773	0.452	0.713	0.310	0.921	0.671	0.279	0.48	P < 0.001^*
SAPS II	0.763	0.446	0.816	0.192	0.970	0.606	0.170	0.47	P < 0.001^*
SIC score	0.599	0.437	0.803	0.121	0.982	0.478	0.197	0.35	P < 0.001^*
External validation set (EICU)
XGBoost	0.923	0.921	0.891	0.555	0.976	0.842	0.102	0.70	Reference
LR	0.831	0.797	0.847	0.403	0.956	0.692	0.133	0.58	P < 0.001^*
NB	0.808	0.744	0.744	0.628	0.829	0.728	0.247	0.50	P < 0.001^*
SVM	0.831	0.799	0.770	0.645	0.861	0.772	0.231	0.58	P < 0.001^*
SOFA	0.724	0.628	0.665	0.518	0.772	0.624	0.313	0.43	P < 0.001^*
SAPS II	0.775	0.704	0.718	0.518	0.772	0.624	0.313	0.48	P < 0.001^*
SIC score	0.592	0.647	0.579	0.638	0.536	0.501	0.330	0.35	P < 0.001^*

LR regression model, NB naive bayes, SVM support vector machine, SOFA sequential organ failure assessment, SAPS II simplified acute physiology score II, AUROC Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve, AUPRC Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve
* indicates a statistical difference

ISSN: 2047-783X